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Chokepoint scanner
Supply-chain pressure, measured daily.
8 named chokepoints — copper for grid transformers, container shipping for ocean freight, uranium, lithium, rare earths — alongside the 11 broad market sectors, each measured against its own traded inputs. Below is today's reading, not a description of one.
Today's reading — 4 of 19 sectors moving
| Sector | Today | Structure | Inputs | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | Elevated | Exposed | SOXX | Semiconductor equities moved -8.2%, 3.3 standard deviations from its own recent range. |
| Memory & NAND Flash Semiconductors | Elevated | Diversified | MU · SOXX | Semiconductor equities moved -8.2%, 3.3 standard deviations from its own recent range. |
| Grid Transformers & Copper | Watch | Diversified | HG=F · GRID | Grid infrastructure equities moved -3.4%, 2.3 standard deviations from its own recent range. |
| Industrials | Watch | Concentrated | XLI | Industrials sector moved -1.6%, 1.8 standard deviations from its own recent range. |
| Financials | Calm | Concentrated | ^TNX · KRE | 648 of 648 structural measures show heavy dependence on a narrow supply base. |
| Communication Services | Calm | Exposed | XLC | 325 of 649 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply. |
| Generic Drugs & Sterile Injectables | Calm | Exposed | TEVA · VTRS | 78 of 154 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply. |
| Consumer Discretionary | Calm | Concentrated | XLY | 970 of 970 structural measures show heavy dependence on a narrow supply base. |
| Agricultural Fertilizer (Potash/Phosphate) | Calm | Diversified | MOS · NTR | Structural measures show supply spread across multiple sources. |
| Energy | Calm | Diversified | CL=F · NG=F | Structural measures show supply spread across multiple sources. |
| Consumer Staples | Calm | Diversified | XLP · ZC=F | Structural measures show supply spread across multiple sources. |
| Rare Earths & Critical Metals | Calm | Exposed | MP · REMX | 647 of 1300 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply. |
| Real Estate | Calm | Diversified | XLRE · ^TNX | Structural measures show supply spread across multiple sources. |
| Uranium & Nuclear Fuel | Calm | Exposed | URA · CCJ | 21 of 78 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply. |
| Utilities | Calm | Diversified | XLU · NG=F | Structural measures show supply spread across multiple sources. |
| Ocean Freight & Container Shipping | Calm | Exposed | ZIM · MATX | 928 of 2228 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply. |
| Lithium & Battery Metals | Calm | Diversified | LIT · ALB | Structural measures show supply spread across multiple sources. |
| Materials | Calm | Exposed | XLB · HG=F | 326 of 686 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply. |
| Health Care | Calm | Exposed | XLV | 322 of 574 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply. |
Measured October 30, 2026. Pressure describes how far each sector's traded inputs sit from their own recent range — it is a measurement of movement, not a forecast, and it carries no view on direction. The Inputs column is what each score is built on, because the count limits what the score can say: 5 of these 19 rows rest on a single instrument, and a lone reading cannot meet the agreement-across-inputs test the top of the scale requires. Those rows can reach Watch and no further.
Why these are two numbers and not one
Most risk scores collapse how a sector is built together with what is happening to it. Ocean freight is import-concentrated every day of the year; that is a fact about its structure, not evidence of a shock. When those are averaged into a single score, the constant half dominates and the score stops moving — every sector reads high, permanently, and the number tells you nothing.
01Structure comes from measures that legitimately do not change week to week: import reliance, production concentration, and the language producers use in their own filings about allocation, backlog and lead times.
02Pressure comes from instruments that trade every day. Each is scored in standard deviations of its own daily returns, because a 3% day in copper and a 3% day in a utilities ETF are not the same event.
03Direction is declared per input. Copper spiking is a transformer bottleneck. A container-shipping equity collapsing is slack, not strain. The same move means opposite things depending on what is moving.
04One input moving is not an alarm. A single stretched instrument reads as Watch. Reaching the top of the scale requires an extreme reading and agreement across inputs.
05A flat instrument produces nothing. If a series has not moved, no reading is generated for it — dividing by a near-zero spread is how rounding noise becomes a five-sigma event.
Source-linked by design
Every structural signal keeps its source and the date the underlying data is from. Slow-moving annual series are labelled as such. Where trustworthy coverage does not exist, the sector is left unrated rather than being scored as low risk, because an absence of evidence is not evidence of safety.
EIAFREDSEC EDGARUSGSFDABTS
What this does not claim
A pressure reading says the market is repricing a sector's inputs unusually fast. It does not say which way a share price goes, and it is not a recommendation. The value is in noticing early that something has changed, then going to look at why.
Follow the pressure as it builds
Every signal here carries its source and the date its data is from. A free account tracks the names it points at and tells you when their coverage changes.
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