Chokepoint scanner

Supply-chain pressure, measured daily.

Eighteen sectors, each measured against the traded market for its own chokepoint — copper for grid transformers, crude and gas for energy, container shipping for ocean freight. Below is today's reading, not a description of one.

Today's reading — 1 of 18 sector moving

SectorTodayStructureWhat moved
FinancialsWatchConcentratedRegional banks moved -1.8%, 1.8 standard deviations from its own recent range.
MaterialsCalmExposed92 of 198 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply.
Grid Transformers & CopperCalmUnratedNo structural measurements are available for this sector yet.
Communication ServicesCalmExposed91 of 182 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply.
Real EstateCalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.
Consumer StaplesCalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.
Consumer DiscretionaryCalmConcentrated273 of 273 structural measures show heavy dependence on a narrow supply base.
Health CareCalmConcentrated91 of 148 structural measures show heavy dependence on a narrow supply base.
IndustrialsCalmConcentrated182 of 275 structural measures show heavy dependence on a narrow supply base.
Information TechnologyCalmExposed184 of 488 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply.
Memory & NAND Flash SemiconductorsCalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.
Ocean Freight & Container ShippingCalmExposed184 of 595 structural measures show meaningful dependence on outside supply.
UtilitiesCalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.
Rare Earths & Critical MetalsCalmConcentrated94 of 97 structural measures show heavy dependence on a narrow supply base.
Uranium & Nuclear FuelCalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.
Agricultural Fertilizer (Potash/Phosphate)CalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.
EnergyCalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.
Lithium & Battery MetalsCalmDiversifiedStructural measures show supply spread across multiple sources.

Measured September 16, 2026. Pressure describes how far each sector's traded inputs sit from their own recent range — it is a measurement of movement, not a forecast, and it carries no view on direction.

Why these are two numbers and not one

Most risk scores collapse how a sector is built together with what is happening to it. Ocean freight is import-concentrated every day of the year; that is a fact about its structure, not evidence of a shock. When those are averaged into a single score, the constant half dominates and the score stops moving — every sector reads high, permanently, and the number tells you nothing.

01Structure comes from measures that legitimately do not change week to week: import reliance, production concentration, and the language producers use in their own filings about allocation, backlog and lead times.
02Pressure comes from instruments that trade every day. Each is scored in standard deviations of its own daily returns, because a 3% day in copper and a 3% day in a utilities ETF are not the same event.
03Direction is declared per input. Copper spiking is a transformer bottleneck. A container-shipping equity collapsing is slack, not strain. The same move means opposite things depending on what is moving.
04One input moving is not an alarm. A single stretched instrument reads as Watch. Reaching the top of the scale requires an extreme reading and agreement across inputs.
05A flat instrument produces nothing. If a series has not moved, no reading is generated for it — dividing by a near-zero spread is how rounding noise becomes a five-sigma event.

Source-linked by design

Every structural signal keeps its source and the date the underlying data is from. Slow-moving annual series are labelled as such. Where trustworthy coverage does not exist, the sector is left unrated rather than being scored as low risk, because an absence of evidence is not evidence of safety.

EIAFREDSEC EDGARUSGSFDABTS

What this does not claim

A pressure reading says the market is repricing a sector's inputs unusually fast. It does not say which way a share price goes, and it is not a recommendation. The value is in noticing early that something has changed, then going to look at why.

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